NFL 2012
Playoffs, Second Round
by Tony Medley
Since I was
probably the only person in the world to pick all four games correctly
last weekend, I guess I have no choice but to continue, even though I
intended to take this year off. So here are my picks for the Second
Round. Be warned, however, that I ended up picking three visiting teams
and the overwhelming majority of playoff games are won by the home team.
New
England over Denver. I
like Denver, and I’m rooting for them. I think they have the wherewithal
to defeat New England. They have a terrific defense and if Tim Tebow can
pass as accurately as he did last week they certainly have a shot,
considering the fact that New England's defense is terrible, both on
pass and run, and Denver's run game is first rate. The main reason I'm
picking New England is that coaches can make terrible decisions that
grab defeat from the jaws of victory, and that's what Denver Coach John
Fox tried to do last week against Pittsburgh. Denver had a two touchdown
lead going into the second half. So what did Fox do? He changed from a
defense that rushed Steeler quarterback Ben
Roethlisberger,
who was injured and couldn't scramble, which is his strength, to a three
man rush that gave Ben all the time in the world. The result was that
the Steelers drove to two touchdowns, easily tying the score. Fox's
defense was idiotic. If he would do this last week, he could do it next
week, so I’m picking New England but my heart's not in it.
New York over
Green Bay.
The weakness of this year's teams is epitomized by a woefully deficient
Green Bay team that went 15-1. This is a team with no defense, no
offensive line, and no running game. It relies on a great quarterback
who can pass and scramble, a fleet of fine receivers, and an
opportunistic defense that, despite its deficient talent, has an
enormous edge in turnovers. The Giants, on the other hand, seem to me to
be the best team in football right now. They have a terrific defense,
although their main weakness is their secondary, the best running game
in football highlighted by Brandon Jacobs who reminds me of Jim Brown, a
fine offensive line, a quarterback who is having his best year on the
same level as Rogers and Brees and Brady as the best in football. What
really makes the Giants special now are two receivers who have become
almost superstars in the last few weeks, Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks.
Considering the quality of the respective teams, this shouldn't even be
close. If I were a betting man, which I'm not, I'd get over to Vegas and
dump a bundle on the Giants and take the 9 points that they are getting,
even if they are the visiting team in rabid Green Bay.
New Orleans
over San Francisco. San
Francisco has been the surprise of the league. Concentrating on defense
in a world of quarterbacks, the 49ers only lost two games this year.
Their offense is competent, concentrating mainly on not making
turnovers. New Orleans, on the other hand, disdains defense (a lot like
Green Bay) with a hot offense led by Drew Brees. Unlike Green Bay,
however, New Orleans has a fine offensive line and a very good running
game, highlighted by offseason change from Reggie Bush to 5-6, 190 lb.
Darren Sproles, who left San Diego to become a Saint. While I can't
explain how they could lose to teams like the Rams and Tampa, I think
New Orleans has too much firepower for the 49ers. But New Orleans'
Jekyll & Hyde personality bit me on the foot last year when they got
blown out by Seattle in the first round, and this year's San Francisco
is a much better team than last year's Seattle. With that as prologue, I
think they've learned their lesson, despite SF's home field advantage.
Baltimore
over Houston. This is the
toughest game for me. I haven't seen much of either team this year, but
they are similar in makeup and style. Both have fine defenses, OK
running games, and questionable quarterbacks. This is a key game for
Ravens qb Joe Flacco, who has a good record at home. The key to the game
is Houston's inexperienced quarterback, T. J. Yates, a rookie fifth
round pick. Although Houston is younger and faster, the game should turn
on the two quarterbacks and who knows how Yates will respond? Also
hurting Baltimore is the condition of its best wide receiver, Anquan
Boldin, who had knee surgery two weeks ago and whose condition is
questionable. Both have good defenses and good running games. Even so,
I'm picking Baltimore because I think Flacco will finally perform in a
big game, and Baltimore rarely loses at home, mainly because Flacco
performs much better at home than on the road. But I'm rooting for
Houston.
January 13, 2012
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