Sports Medley: NFL Playoffs 2015 First Round
by Tony Medley
I hate to toot my own horn, but over the past five years I have as good
a record in prognosticating the NFL playoffs as anyone in the business.
Last year I was the only person who not only picked underdog Seattle to
beat Denver in the Super Bowl, but who said it wouldn’t even be close.
That said, as stock pickers say, past record is no guarantee of future
success. So here’s the way I see the first round.
Detroit at Dallas:
Dallas is the team that ESPN “analyst” Keyshawn Johnson called the
“worst team in football” after the first week of the season. Hardly.
After drafting Wisconsin center-guard Travis Frederick in the first
round in 2013, when his coach and advisors convinced owner Jerry Jones
to eschew drafting Johnny Football and the Cowboys picked offensive
lineman Zak Martin from Notre Dame instead in the first round of 2014’s
draft, these picks gave quarterback Tony Romo the protection he has
always needed with a first rate offensive line. Buoyed by the best
runner in football, DeMarco Murray, and one of the best receivers, Dez
Bryant, and with a beefed up defense after unloading defensive coach Rob
Ryan (who went to New Orleans to destroy the Saints’ defense), the
Cowboys are one of the best teams in football and should handle Detroit,
despite the Lions’ top rated defense. Lions’ quarterback Matthew
Stafford just can’t get it together, missing simple passes time and
again. Worse, although defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh should have been
suspended for at least one game for stepping on Aaron Rodgers’ leg on
Sunday, (consistent with Suh’s poor judgment and inexcusably violent
acts throughout his short career) but the suspension was reversed. But
even with Suh, the Lions are not a match for the Cowboys unless Stafford
shines up to his as yet unrealized potential. If he does, look out. But
I don’t count on it. Dallas.
Arizona at Carolina:
I admit to a bias because I like Arizona. Even though Arizona is playing
with its third string quarterback, Ryan Lindley, he looked much better
against San Francisco than he did against Seattle. But his inexperience
caused a game-costing interception with a horrible pass against the
49ers late in the game. I hate to pick against Arizona, but Carolina is
on a roll, rolling over New Orleans and Atlanta in successive weeks.
Despite the fact that both are extraordinarily weak teams, Carolina
annihilated them. The problem for Arizona is that without its starting
quarterback, its offense is a target to be victimized by Carolina’s
defense which is very good. Arizona lost its last two games because it
was unable to control running quarterbacks Colin Kaeperneck and Russell
Wilson. Can it contain Carolina’s versatile double threat, Cam Newton,
who is as good a runner as these two? I don’t think so. Even though
Carolina is coming into the game with a losing record, and I hate to
pick against a team I like, Carolina is the hot team going into the
playoffs. I’m going with Carolina.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis:
I hate this game. Cincinnati’s defense has come alive lately and
Indianapolis has a porous offensive line. But the Bengal’s quarterback,
Andy Dalton, is generally a disaster waiting to happen. The condition of
the Bengal’s best offensive player, wide receiver A.J. Green, is
undetermined as he is undergoing concussion protocol as I write. If he
can’t play, it’s a blow to the Bengals. But Indianapolis’s record is
illusory. The Colts have only beaten one team with a winning record. The
Colts have a meager running game, a weak offensive line, and quarterback
Andrew Luck leads the league in playoff turnovers over the last three
years. Except for quarterback, Cincinnati has the superior personnel and
one of the best, most inventive defenses in the NFL. In fact, in the
first half against Denver it did what I never understood others didn’t;
it showed Payton Manning one defense while he was calling the play. Then
when Manning was finished, it shifted into another defense, completely
shutting Denver down in the first half. The Bengals didn’t do that in
the second half and Denver’s offense picked up. Cincinnati recognizes
Dalton’s weakness and has devised a game plan that emphasizes running
and short passes, minimizing Dalton’s penchant for disaster. The Bengals’
defense should put enormous pressure on Luck. I’m closing my eyes and
holding my nose and, despite Dalton, picking Cincinnati.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh:
Although at the time I write this the condition of Steeler running back
Le'Veon Bell’s hyperextended knee is unknown, Baltimore is overmatched
in this game. Bell is the Steelers’ total offense leader and to play
without him would be a huge handicap. The Ravens’ quarterback Joe Falco
is no match for Steeler quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who is in the
midst of the best year of his career, and is throwing to Antonio Brown,
the top receiver in the league. In a game they had to win against
Cleveland, playing with its third string quarterback off the practice
squad (Conner Shaw, who I think is better than the starter and the
backup, and who was held down against the Ravens by offensive
coordinator Kyle Shanahan who did not allow him to throw downfield), the
Ravens sleepwalked through the first three quarters and barely emerged
victorious. Why would anyone think they would be any more motivated
against Pittsburgh? Despite many injuries on the Steeler defense, it has
been playing well lately, certainly well enough to control the Ravens’
offense. Baltimore’s defense is poor, especially against the pass and
Roethlisberger leads the league in passing. Pittsburgh.
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